There have been a number of special elections in which Democrats have been the victors lately. Some of those races have even come in surprising places such as Alabama. That being said, the Democrats are likely to hit a wall when it comes to their win streak. Arizona is going to be the place that likely puts an end to the progress they have made so far says CNN.
The heavy favorite to win the race in the Arizona Eighth Congressional District is a Republican. That person is Debbie Lasko, and she is likely to replace Trent Franks who was the Republican holding the seat before. This goes to show that even if there is a wave in favor of the Democrats that it is not going to be something that is balanced in how it shows up throughout the country. There will be areas that are still so Republican that they will not see a Democrat win.
The Eighth Congressional District in Arizona is an area that is so Republican that non-partisan groups that look at these types of things rate the race to be a very Republican solid hold. In other words, no one is expecting the Democrat to win this time.
The district voted for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton by a margin of roughly twenty points. That was the same margin as what Trump won over Clinton in the Pennsylvania 18th Congressional District. However, in the Pennsylvania race the Democrat had the advantage of being in a district that had a strong Democratic tradition. There were actually more Democrats registered in Pennsylvania 18th than Republicans. That is not the same in the Arizona race. Republicans actually hold a registration advantage of around eighty-thousand voters in that district.
Republicans are likely to tout this win if that is indeed what happens as proof that they are still going to be competitive in 2018. However, this win is unlikely to really prove that at all. It is a place where they are supposed to win. The more important storyline here will definitely be what the margin was. The greater the margin, the more important this victory will turn out to be. Democrats could hope for at least a somewhat competitive race as proof that their operation is still running strong in 2018. For Democrats, even a single digit margin by the Republican might be enough to consider this a moral victory.